Allan Gray admits that luck is critical to investment success

We have no sustainable advantage predicting these factors, and won’t get it right every year.

Duncan Artus, Allan Gray Portfolio Manager

It’s always good to stay humble.

Duncan Artus, Allan Gray Portfolio Manager

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviewed Allan Gray Portfolio Manager Duncan Artus.

Artus – in his words - discussed five examples of how luck was critical in their investments.

  • The rise in global terrorism: deadly attacks in Paris, Nice, Brussels and Istanbul, to name a few, dented the public morale, rattled the luxury goods market and led to Richemont being the top contributor to our relative returns for the 12 months to September.

  • MTN’s fine: completely unexpected, took management by surprise and contributed to the fall in the share price which made MTN the second biggest contributor to our relative returns for the 12 months to September.

  • AB-InBev’s acquisition of SABMiller: while in our assessment a transaction was probable, trying to predict merger and acquisition activity is near impossible.

  • Brexit: by the time Brexit came about, we had reduced our clients’ SABMiller holdings by two-thirds and were substantially underweight in the stock. The concomitant fall in the share price stood us in good stead on a relative basis.

  • Gold shares: in isolation accounted for a quarter of our outperformance. The gold price went up because of a confluence of global macroeconomic factors.

Need more detail? Listen to the interview in the audio below.

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Article brought to us by Old Mutual.


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