Allan Gray admits that luck is critical to investment success

We have no sustainable advantage predicting these factors, and won’t get it right every year.

Duncan Artus, Allan Gray Portfolio Manager

It’s always good to stay humble.

Duncan Artus, Allan Gray Portfolio Manager

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviewed Allan Gray Portfolio Manager Duncan Artus.

Artus – in his words - discussed five examples of how luck was critical in their investments.

  • The rise in global terrorism: deadly attacks in Paris, Nice, Brussels and Istanbul, to name a few, dented the public morale, rattled the luxury goods market and led to Richemont being the top contributor to our relative returns for the 12 months to September.

  • MTN’s fine: completely unexpected, took management by surprise and contributed to the fall in the share price which made MTN the second biggest contributor to our relative returns for the 12 months to September.

  • AB-InBev’s acquisition of SABMiller: while in our assessment a transaction was probable, trying to predict merger and acquisition activity is near impossible.

  • Brexit: by the time Brexit came about, we had reduced our clients’ SABMiller holdings by two-thirds and were substantially underweight in the stock. The concomitant fall in the share price stood us in good stead on a relative basis.

  • Gold shares: in isolation accounted for a quarter of our outperformance. The gold price went up because of a confluence of global macroeconomic factors.

Need more detail? Listen to the interview in the audio below.

Click here (then“like” the page) to follow Bruce on Facebook.

Enter your email address in the form below to receive a newsletter containing the most-read articles of the week from Bruce Whitfield’s The Money Show every Friday morning in your inbox.

Subscribe to our Business Wrap Newsletter

Article brought to us by Old Mutual.

Read More
Downgrade to ‘junk’ ruins Sanral plans to borrow more

Downgrade to ‘junk’ ruins Sanral plans to borrow more

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviews Sanral Chief Financial Officer Inge Mulder.

How to figure out who your ideal customer is (the one you can profitably serve)

How to figure out who your ideal customer is (the one you can profitably serve)

Small businesses have limited resources. You have to focus your efforts, says Aurik Business Accelerator’s Pavlo Phitidis.

'Gigaba will have limited effect; the elephant in the room is the President'

'Gigaba will have limited effect; the elephant in the room is the President'

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviews Standard Bank Chief Economist Goolam Ballim.

5 year-olds may never get a car licence

5 year-olds may never get a car licence

Cars might not only be autonomous by 2030, new drivers will probably not be allowed to drive.

Looking for a dev job? Need a developer? OfferZen brings you together!

Looking for a dev job? Need a developer? OfferZen brings you together!

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviews OfferZen cofounder Malan Joubert.

5 reasons why asset manager Citadel is not using the word ‘junk’

5 reasons why asset manager Citadel is not using the word ‘junk’

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviews Citadel Chief Investment Officer George Herman.

Popular articles
New evidence comes to light in Ipid's probe against top cop

New evidence comes to light in Ipid's probe against top cop

Ipid has revealed that evidence against Khomotso Phahlane shows a dubious pattern in car purchases.

Still no trace of missing Charlotte Nikoi, one month on

Still no trace of missing Charlotte Nikoi, one month on

The husband of missing Charlotte Nikoi has pleaded with public to come forward with any information regarding her whereabouts.

[Watch] All the Foreshore Freeway Project proposals

[Watch] All the Foreshore Freeway Project proposals

Take a look at the 6 six proposals that have been received by the City for the Foreshore freeway precinct.

We are in denial of people marching against us - Lindiwe Sisulu

We are in denial of people marching against us - Lindiwe Sisulu

Human Settlements Minister criticised the ANC for being passive at the memorial of late struggle stalwart Amhed Kathrada.

How does El Nino affect Western Cape province?

How does El Nino affect Western Cape province?

Professor William Landman explains what El Nino is and its effects on the coming seasons in the Western Cape.

City of Cape Town ratepayers to face new tariff increases

City of Cape Town ratepayers to face new tariff increases

The free 6Kl of water per month will no longer apply to ratepayers owning property valued at R400 000.

'Land restitution failed because Government is the biggest owner of land'

'Land restitution failed because Government is the biggest owner of land'

Bruce Whitfield interviews Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba's advisor Chris Malikane and Business Leadership SA's Bonang Mohale.