Allan Gray admits that luck is critical to investment success

We have no sustainable advantage predicting these factors, and won’t get it right every year.

Duncan Artus, Allan Gray Portfolio Manager

It’s always good to stay humble.

Duncan Artus, Allan Gray Portfolio Manager

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviewed Allan Gray Portfolio Manager Duncan Artus.

Artus – in his words - discussed five examples of how luck was critical in their investments.

  • The rise in global terrorism: deadly attacks in Paris, Nice, Brussels and Istanbul, to name a few, dented the public morale, rattled the luxury goods market and led to Richemont being the top contributor to our relative returns for the 12 months to September.

  • MTN’s fine: completely unexpected, took management by surprise and contributed to the fall in the share price which made MTN the second biggest contributor to our relative returns for the 12 months to September.

  • AB-InBev’s acquisition of SABMiller: while in our assessment a transaction was probable, trying to predict merger and acquisition activity is near impossible.

  • Brexit: by the time Brexit came about, we had reduced our clients’ SABMiller holdings by two-thirds and were substantially underweight in the stock. The concomitant fall in the share price stood us in good stead on a relative basis.

  • Gold shares: in isolation accounted for a quarter of our outperformance. The gold price went up because of a confluence of global macroeconomic factors.

Need more detail? Listen to the interview in the audio below.

Click here (then“like” the page) to follow Bruce on Facebook.

Enter your email address in the form below to receive a newsletter containing the most-read articles of the week from Bruce Whitfield’s The Money Show every Friday morning in your inbox.

Subscribe to our Business Wrap Newsletter

Article brought to us by Old Mutual.

Read More
Get the best money news/advice/interviews every Friday in your inbox (it’s FREE)

Get the best money news/advice/interviews every Friday in your inbox (it’s FREE)

Fan of The Money Show? Sign up for a newsletter containing the 10 most-read articles of the week. Here’s what you’ll be getting…

How to improve your credit score

How to improve your credit score

A listener wants to know how to improve his credit score (which she assumes is not bad).

How to get funding for your business (or project)

How to get funding for your business (or project)

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviews Aurik Business Accelerator’s Pavlo Phitidis.

Earn peanuts? How to best invest very small amounts...

Earn peanuts? How to best invest very small amounts...

Got a spare R200 or R300 a month? Here’s how to make that money work hard and grow…

‘Converting words into action is a challenge’ – Pravin Gordhan (from the WEF)

‘Converting words into action is a challenge’ – Pravin Gordhan (from the WEF)

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviews Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan who is at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Meet the famous Mark Mobius (aka ‘Pied Piper of emerging markets’)

Meet the famous Mark Mobius (aka ‘Pied Piper of emerging markets’)

A key figure in developing global emerging markets policy; there’s even a comic book on his life!

Popular articles
'People are in pain! They want to see AB play Test Cricket!' - Neil Manthorp

'People are in pain! They want to see AB play Test Cricket!' - Neil Manthorp

John Maytham interviews famed cricket correspondent Neil Manthorp.

Culprits spotted deliberately starting fires in the Cape

Culprits spotted deliberately starting fires in the Cape

Chief Fire Officer at Overberg District Municipality says arson is a problem they are all too familiar with.

Exasperated listener (and Kuga owner) recounts shocking service from Ford

Exasperated listener (and Kuga owner) recounts shocking service from Ford

It’s getting worse and worse for Ford, as this report of shocking service shows. John Maytham interviews a frustrated listener.