Kenyatta to win Kenyan election by small margin, predicts political economist

Former President Thabo Mbeki is in Kenya as an observer, ahead of the country's general elections.

Kenyans are due to go to the polls on Tuesday but the killing of a top electoral official has sparked fears of violence.

Veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga is running against incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is battling to secure a second five-year term.

Odinga, of the umbrella opposition party National Super Alliance, will challenge incumbent Kenyatta of the Jubilee Party in next week's 8 August polls.

Political economist Ronak Gopaldas predicts that Kenyatta will likely take narrow win for his party.

Gopaldas argues that move to the devolved system of governance in Kenya has altered political geography and brought power to the people.

Kenyans will choose a new president, lawmakers and local representatives, and he believes that this system has diluted risk of national violence, as in the 2007 polls.

Elections in Kenya are always high-stakes affairs, very competitive and tense.

Ronak Gopaldas, Head of Country Risk at Rand Merchant Bank

Not only are Kenyans voting for for their President this time, they're voting for local governors, senators, female county representatives an Parliamentarians.

Ronak Gopaldas, Head of Country Risk at Rand Merchant Bank

Either way, Gopaldas argues that the stage is set for legal contestation through the courts, following the election results.

Take a listen his analysis and predictions:


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