TheJohn MaythamShow

ISS Senior Researcher Derek Matyszak breaks down the numbers and how the impeachment process will play o

Matyszak says the impeachment is a two-stage process.

First, the motion is tabled to initiate the impeachment process and there are four basic grounds on which the president could be impeached.

They select one of those, they table the motion - and that only needs a 50% majority, and only needs 50% majority from one of the Houses of Parliament, the National Assembly.

— Derek Matyszak, ISS Senior Researcher

From the number of MPs present today, he says it looks like the motion will pass. A committee is then formed to investigate the grounds of impeachment, which then reports back recommendations to parliament.

Then it moves to the second-stage of impeachment, he explains.

It can be more difficult, he says, because if the committee reports back that the sitting president be removed from office, both houses of parliament have to sit together jointly.

That's 350 if we have a full complement of parliamentarians...and then they need a two-thirds majority - 233 votes....and there was some concern they would not get those numbers in.

— Derek Matyszak, ISS Senior Researcher

He says Zanu-PF believes it can mobilise the numbers.

And the moment that vote is passed affirmatively, that two-thirds is there, Mugabe is out of office. The Constitution is self-implementing. There are no further steps to be taken.

— Derek Matyszak, ISS Senior Researcher

Are there any spanners that may be thrown into the works?

This is terra nova for the parliament, and there are no procedures set out as to how this committee that is going to make this recommendation to parliament is supposed to proceed.

— Derek Matyszak, ISS Senior Researcher

Some suggest there should be hearings, that Mugabe should have a right of reply - while others do not feel it should not be such a protracted process, need not get submissions from Mugabe and should be resolved in 24 hours.

Listen to this detailed breakdown of how Mugabe is likely to be impeached: