Streaming issues? Report here
capetalk-classicspng
CapeTalk Classics
14:00 - 17:00
volume_up
volume_mute

Up Next: Jazz Sessions on CapeTalk Classics
See full line-up
CapeTalk Classics
14:00 - 17:00
Home
arrow_forward
Politics

Melanie Verwoerd: How to read political polls ahead of upcoming 2019 election

5 March 2019 8:48 AM
Tags:
Elections
Melanie Verwoerd
2019 national elections
Political opinion polls seem to present a range of differing results, so find out how to navigate your way through the results.

Kieno Kammies speaks to Melanie Verwoerd about the build-up to the general elections which will be taking place on 8 May 2019.

This is the first of a weekly discussion she will be having with Kieno, looking at various aspects and dynamics of the election process.

Political opinion polls seem to present such a range of differing results.

She explains how these opinion polls work.

They give as a bit of a projection into the future. They want to know if the election was held today, what would happen?

Melanie Verwoerd, Analyst and former ANC MP

She says both voters and political parties study these results closely.

There are different types of polls. Firstly, those done by outside bodies

Either polling agencies like Ipsos, it does that for a living, or think tanks like the Institute for Race Relations who are often slightly politically aligned. And then parties do internal political polling that they usually keep under lock and key because they don't want people to know the results.

Melanie Verwoerd, Analyst and former ANC MP

So how come sometimes polls get it so wrong like in the USA with the Clinton trump results? She says in South Africa it is useful to suggest what we should look out for when assessing poll results.

Here are some factors to consider:

  1. The size of the poll
  2. Geographical spread
  3. Urban-rural balance
  4. Face-to-face poll
  5. When it was conducted
  6. Whether registered voters were polled

Take a listen to more insights into the recent polling results below and Verwoerd's assessment of where political parties are currently situated:


5 March 2019 8:48 AM
Tags:
Elections
Melanie Verwoerd
2019 national elections

More from 2019 South African general election: Analysis and News

It is crucial that Cyril Ramaphosa prioritises implementation - economist

17 May 2019 2:18 PM

Intellidex's Peter Attard Montalto says the president needs to follow through with all his promises.

Read More arrow_forward

'It is clear that electorate is giving us serious consideration' - EFF

17 May 2019 7:50 AM

Post-election, national chairperson advocate Dali Mpofu evaluates the party's gains.

Read More arrow_forward

Gigaba, Dlamini and Mokonyane heading to Parliament despite outcry

16 May 2019 1:09 PM

Political analyst Nompumelelo Runji says these people have support from their constituencies.

Read More arrow_forward

MPs to be sworn in next week as chief justice receives candidate lists

15 May 2019 4:31 PM

Eyewitness News reporter Ayanda Nyathi shares details on the process leading up to the first sitting of the National Assembly.

Read More arrow_forward

Could former ANC mayors come back as Gauteng MECs?

14 May 2019 5:18 PM

Eyewitness News reporter Clement Manyathela shares details on the return of Kgosientso Ramokgopa and Parks Tau.

Read More arrow_forward

'We take responsibility for our shortfall and don't blame anyone for our defeat'

14 May 2019 1:26 PM

Democratic Alliance says it will review its elections campaign and performance.

Read More arrow_forward

'The Cabinet needs to have competent people who are skilled and beyond reproach'

14 May 2019 8:39 AM

BLSA chief operations officer Busisiwe Mavuso says Cyril Ramaphosa needs to appoint ministers that are of the right calibre.

Read More arrow_forward

Premier-elect Winde says he will reduce red tape to help W Cape business grow

14 May 2019 8:19 AM

Alan Winde says he is already in discussions on who members of his Cabinet would be in the provincial legislature.

Read More arrow_forward

'Maimane is our leader, elected by DA members, he will lead until next congress'

14 May 2019 7:54 AM

Federal chairperson Athol Trollip says the party takes collective responsibility for the election results.

Read More arrow_forward

[LISTEN] Adriaan Basson says Ramphosa may need to watch his back post elections

13 May 2019 6:04 PM

The News24 editor says there is a theory in the ANC that Lindiwe Sisulu may be used by the 'Zuma camp' to unseat the president.

Read More arrow_forward