Melanie Verwoerd: How to read political polls ahead of upcoming 2019 election

Kieno Kammies speaks to Melanie Verwoerd about the build-up to the general elections which will be taking place on 8 May 2019.

This is the first of a weekly discussion she will be having with Kieno, looking at various aspects and dynamics of the election process.

Political opinion polls seem to present such a range of differing results.

She explains how these opinion polls work.

They give as a bit of a projection into the future. They want to know if the election was held today, what would happen?

Melanie Verwoerd, Analyst and former ANC MP

She says both voters and political parties study these results closely.

There are different types of polls. Firstly, those done by outside bodies

Either polling agencies like Ipsos, it does that for a living, or think tanks like the Institute for Race Relations who are often slightly politically aligned. And then parties do internal political polling that they usually keep under lock and key because they don't want people to know the results.

Melanie Verwoerd, Analyst and former ANC MP

So how come sometimes polls get it so wrong like in the USA with the Clinton trump results? She says in South Africa it is useful to suggest what we should look out for when assessing poll results.

Here are some factors to consider:

  1. The size of the poll
  2. Geographical spread
  3. Urban-rural balance
  4. Face-to-face poll
  5. When it was conducted
  6. Whether registered voters were polled

Take a listen to more insights into the recent polling results below and Verwoerd's assessment of where political parties are currently situated:


Recommended

by NEWSROOM AI
Read More
What you need to know about the new political party ZACP

What you need to know about the new political party ZACP

Capitalist Party of South Africa, a new party running in the 2019 general elections says 'don't vote for us, vote for our ideas.'

ANC disregarded its own policies when drawing party list - Melanie Verwoerd

ANC disregarded its own policies when drawing party list - Melanie Verwoerd

Political analyst and former ANC MP Melanie Verwoerd looks at the build-up to the elections the controversial ANC party list.

Yes you can win Lotto even when playing from the app, Ithuba confirms

Yes you can win Lotto even when playing from the app, Ithuba confirms

Ithuba allays listeners concerns that they are no winning tickets from the lottery app.

Kilometres of boiler tube leaks 'are biting us big time' says Eskom COO

Kilometres of boiler tube leaks 'are biting us big time' says Eskom COO

Eskom's Jan Oberholzer says it has discovered boiler tube leaks which continue for kilometres and is working to repair this.

UK company piloting plastic waste to build roads in SA

UK company piloting plastic waste to build roads in SA

This cost-effective technology will also be used to patch potholes on South Africa's roads.

'Diesel shipment arriving on Tuesday will bring big relief to the grid'

'Diesel shipment arriving on Tuesday will bring big relief to the grid'

Demand management senior general manager, Andrew Etzinger provides details of why load shedding has been implemented.

Popular articles
'I left Australia for SA so that my sons can practice their religion in freedom'

'I left Australia for SA so that my sons can practice their religion in freedom'

A Muslim mom and former community spokesperson - now living in SA - recounts the deep-rooted history of Islamophobia in Australia.

Journos describe 2-hour late train ride with Ramaphosa who vows heads will roll

Journos describe 2-hour late train ride with Ramaphosa who vows heads will roll

eNCA reporter Aldrin Sampear and EWN's Mia Lindeque say the president experienced what ordinary South Africans endure daily.

Load shedding will be resolved permanently in a few weeks - Fikile Mbalula

Load shedding will be resolved permanently in a few weeks - Fikile Mbalula

ANC head of elections, Fikile Mbalula says the president is hard at work to resolve Eskom's problems.

Sea Point residents object to building of 18-story skyscraper

Sea Point residents object to building of 18-story skyscraper

The tribunal approved an application for a new skyscraper in Sea Point but residents are concerned about the building's scale.

Genesis of the Eskom problem is ANC looting says Eusebius

Genesis of the Eskom problem is ANC looting says Eusebius

Eusebius McKaiser facillitates a debate between callers about their frustrations due to load shedding.

'Diesel shipment arriving on Tuesday will bring big relief to the grid'

'Diesel shipment arriving on Tuesday will bring big relief to the grid'

Demand management senior general manager, Andrew Etzinger provides details of why load shedding has been implemented.

Here's how to check your load shedding schedule in Cape Town

Here's how to check your load shedding schedule in Cape Town

Eskom has warned that more power cuts can be expected as maintenance continues over the next twelve months.