Terrorism expert Jasmine Opperman says the latest terrorist attack in New Zealand was well planned, but one should not assume it was carried out by an organised group.
Rightwing extremist Brenton Tarrant claimed responsibility in a manifesto titled 'The Great Replacement', which he published on social media.
The 74-page document starts off quoting the Dylan Thomas poem, “Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night” and then erupts into a tirade about white genocide.
Apparently live streaming the assault, Tarrant stormed two Christchurch mosques on Friday morning.
He has been charged with murder, while three others have been arrested.
Using similar attacks as an example, Opperman say these are usually lone wolf acts.
This was a well planned attack. Does this mean that there is an organised group now supporting the great replacement? No, I think one is jumping from A to C here without any evidence.— Jasmine Opperman, Director- Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium (Africa)
That there is growing support and growing tensions and numbers supporting such extreme ideas cannot be denied, but organised for instance as you will find in Al Qaeda, there is no indication.— Jasmine Opperman, Director- Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium (Africa)
Opperman goes on to say the massacre is a clear indication that the world might be in store for more stochastic terrorism, a term generally understood to refer to acts of random violence by lone wolf terrorists.
Stochastic terrorism is the world we are entering, statistically this has been coming. If one looks at the incidents that have taken place, I can make a strategic conclusion that the probability of civil attacks even in a place like New Zealand is highly probable.— Jasmine Opperman, Director- Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium (Africa)
To go into a tactical forecast or alert of who, what, when and how is very difficult. You are going to be lucky if you are going to be able to predict when an attack is going to happen. Tactically you are going to find it very difficult to get such intelligence.— Jasmine Opperman, Director- Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium (Africa)
Opperman says it is likely that revenge attacks will take place.
The world is so caught up in the Middle East that they have forgotten that there are reprisals. This is my concern with this attack, is that we are going to see revenge attacks. People are going to respond and I think for intelligence services to look at the whole spectrum of terrorism, is of utmost importance.— Jasmine Opperman, Director- Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium (Africa)
Click on the link below to hear more from Opperman....
This article first appeared on 702 : NZ terror attack: 'My concern... is that we are going to see revenge attacks'