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Will 8 May election poll predictions get it right? Analyst explains

6 May 2019 7:39 AM
Tags:
Elections
South Africa
Voting
8 May
Dawie Scholtz provides a forecast on expected voting outcomes in the upcoming general election on Wednesday.

South Africans will head to the polls on Wednesday in a much-anticipated national election.

Will Cyril Ramaphosa get the African National Congress (ANC) over the line, will the Democratic Alliance (DA) vote share increase, and will the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) garner enough support to become a kingmaker?

Read: 'Gauteng is the most hotly contested province'

702's Bongani Bingwa speaks to elections analyst Dawie Scholtz.

Read: People need to be careful when interpreting polls, says Melanie Verwoerd

We have experienced diverse polling in recent times, and that is creating uncertainty in the atmosphere.

Dawie Scholtz, Election analyst

If we look at historical voting patterns and the by-elections from six to nine months ago, they suggest a result of around 55% to 60% to the ANC, but the by-elections stopped about a month ago, so we have not had new election data.

Dawie Scholtz, Election analyst

I think there are two views around the election right now on what the results could be - one based on historical results, and the other is a radical view that places the ANC in the low fifties.

Dawie Scholtz, Political analyst

He says in order for the ANC to end up in the low 50s, the EFF will have to do very well, probably doubling its voter support.

He believes will do somewhat better in this election though not 'massively' better with a prediction of 22-24% on the day.

At this stage, I am placing it at 55% to 60% unless something radical happened on the campaign trail. My advice is to sit tight until 8 May and analyse the numbers as they come.

Dawie Scholtz, Election analyst

Despite many analysts remaining skeptical about election polls, Scholtz believes polling conducted by research companies is an exact science and thinks there will be two critical factors in this election.

One is turnout, there is a critical question about what the level of attendance will be, and another significant thing is where the black vote will go.

Dawie Scholtz, Election analyst

Listen below to the full interview:


This article first appeared on 702 : Will 8 May election poll predictions get it right? Analyst explains


6 May 2019 7:39 AM
Tags:
Elections
South Africa
Voting
8 May

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