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Western Cape DA majority dropping below 50% is 'unlikely'

8 May 2019 12:39 PM

Prof. Erwin Schwella on why this scenario is improbable and how it would result in a 'moderate' coalition.

There are fears that the wintry weather conditions in the Western Cape may keep voters away from the polling stations.

Erwin Schwella, Professor of public leadership at Stellenbosch University says this scenario would would work in the Democratic Alliance's (DA's) favour, given their demographic.

One can safely assume that those people who are potentially more protected against the elements of nature, weather for example, will be able to get to voting stations and those who are less protected, not.

Erwin Schwella, Professor of public leadership - Stellenbosch University

That might build in some kind of a bias into the outcome.

Erwin Schwella, Professor of public leadership - Stellenbosch University

But what is his prediction?

Professor Schwella says, taking into account that the DA currently enjoys a 59% majority in the provincial legislature, a drop below 50% is improbable, even given the recent problems the party has been grappling with like the badly managed process involving former mayor Patricia de Lille.

Even if we go one step beyond the previous national and provincial elections - it's not completely comparable - however there the vote for the DA came close to 65%.

Erwin Schwella, Professor of public leadership - Stellenbosch University

If there's a swing of 15% on 65 into below 50%, that would be more or less unheard of in history.

Erwin Schwella, Professor of public leadership - Stellenbosch University

In that unlikely event however, Schwella says a resulting coalition government would be a moderate one.

For more on the outlook for the Western Cape and how coalition governments are formed, listen below:


8 May 2019 12:39 PM

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