2019 South African general election: Analysis and News

'The Gauteng provincial race is too close to call'

Political commentator and law professor Richard Calland says South Africans need to be cautious when they interpret trickling election results as it is still early days.

Read: IEC ought to take voting concerns seriously - Archbishop Makgoba

Calland shares these views with CapeTalk's Kieno Kammies, broadcasting live at Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) result centre in the Western Cape.

In terms of the national vote, every vote from every place in the country goes into one big barrel. So, unless you know where the votes come from, it is tough to detect any pattern.

Richard Calland, Political commentator and law professor

In Joburg township areas, there is a sense of the Economic Freedom Fighters doing well in some wards as they did in 2016 in the local government elections.

Richard Calland, Political commentator and law professor

He says there has been a pattern over the 25 years that has emerged where there has been a coupling effect where the local government election is often the best predictor of what will happen in the national polls.

In many ways, what we are looking at is not a comparison of 2014, but a comparison of 2016. So in 2016, we had for the first time a significant decline in support for the African National Congress (ANC) amongst its core voter group which was the working class.

Richard Calland, Political commentator and law professor

Calland adds that about three million people from township areas stayed at home in 2016 and that hurt the ANC.

In this particular election, the Gauteng provincial race is too close to call. All the indications so far suggest that it is going to be tight, but we are looking at 2016 tight numbers and not 2014 numbers.

Richard Calland, Political commentator and law professor

Listen below to the full interview:


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