Western Cape will have less than 10 deaths a day by end of September - Panda
Is the Western Cape's Covid-19 infection peak behind us and what do the coming months hold?
Piet Streicher of Pandemic Data Analytics talks to Refilwe Moloto about what we can actually read into announcements by the Western Cape Health authorities that they are seeing signs that infection rates in the province are no longer accelerating.
We predicted we would reach the peak between 23 June and 7 July and we actually reached the peak on 24 June at a level of 52 deaths a day.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
Since then he says the death rate has gradually declined.
It's down to about 35 deaths a day and it is consistently declining which is very good news for the Western Cape and is supported by what we are seeing in the hospitals.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
He says currently fewer beds are in use for Covid-19 patients and bed usage peaked at 1,900 beds. It is now down to 1,400 he adds.
ICU beds peaked at 330. and that is down to 270 already.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
He says staff capacity, as well as bed availability, also plays a vital role.
Certainly, for the Western Cape, the healthcare service was taking a lot of strain - but we got through it and I think the Western Cape did very well.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
Streicher commends the Western Cape Health Department's daily release of statistics.
The numbers they brought out on a daily basis, was of very high quality and very accurate.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
The use of oxygen has become a preferred treatment to ventilators for many Covid-19 patients, and he says the use of oxygen has also declined.
It means the pandemic will be over for us before the rest of the provinces.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
We should have less than 10 deaths a day by the end of September which is great news for the Western Cape and we will be able to get back to normal sooner.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
Panda strongly supported Premier Alan Winde's decision to shorten the curfew and allow restaurants to operate more effectively and to open up leisure travel accommodation.
Especially in Western Cape, we should open as much of the economy as soon as possible.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
People need to work to earn a living, he says.
Our risk now from an economic point of view is much, much higher than Covid.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
It is important now to also focus on other health concerns, he notes.
Are their risks of a second wave?
We have not seen any region or metro in the world that has gone through a second peak of deaths. You sometimes get a second peak in terms of cases, but especially where the virus got everywhere.the chances of going back to having 50 deaths of a day are unlikely.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
And it is highly likely the virus reached everywhere in the Western Cape he says.
The chances of ever going back to a scenario of having 50 deaths of a day are impossible at this stage...as it reached everywhere and that is the reason it slows down.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
Listen to the interview below:
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