SA will hit a second wave if testing increases tenfold, says Panda's Streicher
The second wave of Covid-19 infections hit countries, especially in Europe.
Piet Streicher, a member of Pandemic Data and Analytics spoke to CapeTalk a few months ago to look at the trends they were identifying and what it meant for the path the pandemic would take through SA in the coming months.
Streicher talks to Lester Kiewit.
He says it is important to look at all the parameters - including hospitalisations, ICU bed occupancy, and fatalities
In the Western Cape, we have seen a very consistent downward trend, so last time I spoke to Refilwe Moloto I predicted the Western Cape would get to below 10 deaths a day by the end of September, and we got to that point on the 20th of September.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
He says the downward trend is quite predictable and the same trend can be seen in South Africa where fatalities are halving every 24 days.
If this trend continues for South Africa, it will also get to below 10 fatalities a day by mid-December.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
The second wave?
Streicher says in Europe testing has increased ten-fold.
So I can confidently predict that South Africa will also hit a second wave if testing is increased ten-fold.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
He explains the reason for this is that while only symptomatic cases are being tested, only a fraction of the real total of Covid-19 infections is being recorded.
At any point in time in South Africa, there are multiple more people who are infected.Piet Streicher - Pandemic Data Analytics
So increased testing will appear that cases increase, he says.
Listen to the interview below:
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