Western Cape Covid-19 infections surge. George/Knysna exceeds 1st wave peak

A second wave of Covid-19 infections is now well established in parts of SA, says Piet Streicher (Pandemic Data and Analytics).

The resurgence of Covid-19 is now well-entrenched in these parts of South Africa:

Cape Town metro
Mossel Bay to East London (and a bit inland from there)
Eastern Cape

In the past week, the Western Cape has seen a 52% rise in new infections, with widespread community transmission once again firmly entrenched.

New infections in George and Knysna have exceeded the peak of the first wave.

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Millions of South Africans typically travel around the country in December; a huge concern when considering how well established the second wave of infections may be in a few weeks from now.

Refilwe Moloto asked Panda (Pandemic Data and Analytics) member Piet Streicher how concerned we should be.

Streicher reckons that areas hard-hit during the July peak may be less affected this time around.

However, rural areas in the Eastern Cape, largely spared earlier this year, should keep us up at night.

We saw a resurgence in the Eastern Cape. Numbers have been going up there for at least a month… it’s starting to slowly return to the Cape Town metropolitan area.
Piet Streicher, member - Pandemic Data and Analytics

Test positivity rates – all the way from Mossel Bay to East London – is back up to 30%, close to what it was during the peak in July. Test positivity rates in the Western Cape are also increasing again…
Piet Streicher, member - Pandemic Data and Analytics

A lot of people will travel from the Western Cape to the Eastern Cape, and back again…
Piet Streicher, member - Pandemic Data and Analytics

Test positivity rates is a very reliable metric… it gives you an accurate picture of where the hotspots are… currently, all the way from Mossel Bay to East London, and a bit inland from there as well…
Piet Streicher, member - Pandemic Data and Analytics

We’re seeing a pattern. Areas that were very hard hit in June and July are coming off lighter this time around. Areas that were hit lightly, are coming off worse.
Piet Streicher, member - Pandemic Data and Analytics

Immunity builds up slowly… and it’s not permanent…. But it’s the primary thing that slows down the disease; the fact that the susceptible population is getting smaller… The transmission potential of the disease is lower now than in April or May…
Piet Streicher, member - Pandemic Data and Analytics

… the load on the hospitals will be lower in the Cape metropolitan areas. Rural areas in the Eastern Cape that were hit lightly in June and July will have a bigger problem this time around.
Piet Streicher, member - Pandemic Data and Analytics

For more detail, listen to the interview in the audio below.